It’s Monday, May 9th. At the time I’m writing this, I should have been in Paris, yet, I am not. Reason being? I got COVID. Yes, finally, since the pandemic started in March 2020, I have not had COVID-19. But, the one week I decided to take off from work to travel, a nice nurse at the urgent care across the street brought the news that I indeed had gotten COVID. Now, it doesn’t matter where or how I got it. All that matters is that me getting COVID at this time was the most inconvenient time I could have imagined. As I sat in the room at the urgent care, waiting on the results from the rapid test I had just taken, I thought to myself, how ironic would it be for me to get COVID now. Funny enough, so said, so done. I’m not bummed that I will have to postpone my trip to Paris, that’s immaterial, I’ll go later this year but what I gathered from this situation is that life has a way of teaching you lessons from setbacks. I think it’s Proust that said, “Happiness is good for the body but it’s grief that develops the powers of the mind.” Yes, being happy, or joyful, is definitely the goal but it’s moments of grief that brings frame and reference to what life is really all about.
It’s why I can sit and opine about a term usually used in finance about forecasting, “All else held constant.” This term is used when trying to forecast and predict a company’s success or downfall. Analyst usually use the company’s metrics, their current demand, the economic environment, and make predictions about where this company will be in one, two, or three years. But, they always caveat their predictions with the saying, “Assuming all else is held constant.” You see, this little phrase is one of the most important things we will all learn sooner or later in life because the truth is, all else usually doesn’t hold constant. Life is dynamic and constantly changing. Nassim Taleb is famous for writing on what the individuals now call, “Black Swan” events. This is when something happens for which you can’t predict or account for in your calculations. Point in case, getting sick with COVID for the first time in 2 years the week you’re planning to travel. If we quickly do the maths, that’s circa 104 weeks, 1 week out of that is a less than 1% chance. Not even factoring the fact that you’re vaccinated. It’s funny how statistics work, but life is funny like that, and as the saying goes, fate loves irony.
So, i’m off this week and relaxing (quarantining) in Dallas. I’ve got ample time to catch up on some books, New Yorker short stories, and finally get to that spring cleaning that I’ve been procrastinating about. Yet, I just wanted to write and let you know that when all else doesn’t hold constant, it’s usually comes in the nature of things outside of your control. There’s nothing you can do but give yourself the grace to understand that’s life. So, how to plan? With margin for error. How to live?
la vie en rose,
Daviel